Sat, Oct 17, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 116 | 07 | 09 | 132 |
| TBL | 03 | 112 | 17 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:52BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 13:41TBLVladislav NamestnikovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 16:03TBLAlex KillornPPGWGAssists: Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:09BUFMatt Moulson: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:22BUFJack Eichel: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:21TBLJonathan Drouin: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:27BUFMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:44TBLMatt Carle: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:45TBLBraydon Coburn: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 14:23BUFCody Franson: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – O'Reilly – Reinhart9:24
xG 0.97–0.50 (66%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Legwand – McGinn – Deslauriers3:55
xG 0.05–0.03 (60%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Moulson – Foligno – Girgensons8:00
xG 0.06–0.11 (36%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Gionta – Kane – Eichel10:51
xG 0.10–0.36 (21%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Ristolainen15:25
xG 0.61–0.21 (74%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Pysyk – McCabe11:54
xG 0.66–0.41 (62%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Franson – Weber11:15
xG 0.13–0.52 (20%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Stamkos – Palat3:30
xG 0.26–0.04 (86%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Namestnikov – Brown4:49
xG 0.18–0.11 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov8:08
xG 0.06–0.09 (39%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Filppula – Killorn – Paquette5:42
xG 0.06–0.15 (27%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Stralman7:43
xG 0.48–0.08 (86%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Coburn – Stralman3:58
xG 0.24–0.04 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Carle – Sustr4:10
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).