Tue, Oct 20, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Nashville Predators 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 38 | 110 | 01 | 0 | 429 |
| NSH | 112 | 29 | 111 | 01 | 1 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:07NSHMike FisherAssists: Shea Weber, James Neal · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 3:25TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Valtteri Filppula · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 8:51TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Ondrej Palat, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 10:29NSHShea WeberAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Colin Wilson · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 17:41TBLRyan CallahanAssists: Victor Hedman, Anton Stralman · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 18:55NSHJames NealAssists: Filip Forsberg, Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 5:24TBLErik CondraAssists: Brian Boyle · Snap, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 14:30NSHJames NealAssists: Filip Forsberg · Snap, 0.04 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. NSH Filip Forsberg scored
- 2. TBL Ryan Callahan stopped
- 3. NSH Craig Smith stopped
- 4. TBL Jonathan Drouin stopped
- 5. NSH James Neal stopped
- 6. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:12NSHViktor Arvidsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:39NSHJames Neal: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:10TBLSteven Stamkos: Holding2 min
- P2 13:51TBLBen Bishop: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:22TBLBraydon Coburn: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Condra – Namestnikov8:14
xG 0.69–0.21 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 1–2
- Callahan – Stamkos – Drouin11:15
xG 0.57–0.38 (60%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov11:20
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Filppula – Killorn – Paquette11:06
xG 0.10–0.20 (34%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman15:07
xG 0.79–0.23 (78%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- Coburn – Sustr14:47
xG 0.51–0.59 (47%)attempts 11–19goals 1–1
- Carle – Garrison14:31
xG 0.30–0.39 (43%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Neal – Forsberg12:07
xG 0.93–0.20 (82%)attempts 20–7goals 3–0
- Hodgson – Jarnkrok – Arvidsson8:30
xG 0.41–0.17 (71%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Bourque7:10
xG 0.07–0.42 (14%)attempts 4–10goals 0–2
- Ribeiro – Wilson – Smith14:36
xG 0.22–0.71 (24%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi17:24
xG 1.10–0.47 (70%)attempts 26–17goals 3–1
- Ekholm – Jones16:55
xG 0.22–0.43 (34%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Bartley – Bitetto12:24
xG 0.29–0.80 (26%)attempts 7–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).