Tue, Nov 3, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 08 | 19 | 013 | 130 |
| DET | 09 | 110 | 110 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:02DETRiley SheahanAssists: Tomas Tatar, Jakub Kindl · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 15:58TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 5:54DETDylan LarkinGWGAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:26TBLTye McGinn: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 10:55DETJustin Abdelkader: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:54TBLValtteri Filppula: Interference2 min
- P2 6:51DETDylan Larkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:51TBLSteven Stamkos: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:50DETBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:37DETJoakim Andersson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:20TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:11DETLandon Ferraro: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Namestnikov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Johnson – Kucherov11:07
xG 0.45–0.09 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Callahan – Stamkos – Palat7:46
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- McGinn – Namestnikov – Brown3:59
xG 0.06–0.09 (41%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Filppula – Boyle – Condra5:42
xG 0.09–0.38 (19%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman12:31
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Carle – Garrison11:51
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Garrison – Hedman3:07
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Tatar – Sheahan9:12
xG 0.43–0.12 (78%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Helm – Andersson – Pulkkinen4:09
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin12:07
xG 0.49–0.50 (50%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Miller – Ferraro – Glendening11:28
xG 0.14–0.39 (26%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Smith13:53
xG 0.93–0.35 (73%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Kindl – Marchenko11:20
xG 0.27–0.14 (67%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Kindl – Smith2:09
xG 0.04–0.08 (34%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).