Tue, Nov 10, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 111 | 18 | 28 | 427 |
| TBL | 05 | 113 | 013 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:57BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Cody Franson · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 0:52TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 1:40BUFCody FransonGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 5:24BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: David Legwand, Nicolas Deslauriers · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 19:24BUFRasmus RistolainenENAssists: Chad Johnson · Wrist, 0.35 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:05TBLCedric Paquette: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:38BUFMarcus Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:35BUFDavid Legwand: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:26BUFRyan O'Reilly: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:56BUFCody Franson: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:00TBLSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:38BUFBrian Gionta: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:42TBLJason Garrison: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Ennis – Eichel6:58
xG 0.49–0.09 (84%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Larsson – Girgensons – Reinhart8:40
xG 0.22–0.08 (75%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Deslauriers – Girgensons2:28
xG 0.05–0.04 (51%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Legwand – Foligno – Deslauriers5:11
xG 0.13–0.28 (32%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Pysyk – McCabe13:59
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Franson11:18
xG 0.38–0.60 (39%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen16:38
xG 0.37–0.59 (38%)attempts 13–25goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Johnson – Kucherov12:33
xG 0.65–0.34 (66%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Stamkos5:41
xG 0.19–0.10 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Brown – Paquette5:03
xG 0.11–0.07 (62%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Condra – Drouin3:23
xG 0.08–0.09 (45%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman13:50
xG 0.71–0.26 (73%)attempts 25–11goals 0–1
- Garrison – Sustr3:19
xG 0.17–0.08 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Coburn – Carle3:48
xG 0.06–0.03 (69%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).