Thu, Nov 12, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
St. Louis Blues 3, New York Rangers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 116 | 210 | 08 | 334 |
| NYR | 37 | 18 | 27 | 622 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:54NYRDerick BrassardAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 7:12NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Derick Brassard, Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 14:38NYRKevin HayesAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Oscar Lindberg · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P1 16:40STLDmitrij JaskinAssists: Colton Parayko, Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–3
- P2 5:24STLVladimir TarasenkoUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 10:21NYRJ.T. MillerGWGAssists: Derek Stepan, Dan Girardi · Deflected, 0.01 xG2–4
- P2 14:21STLTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Robby Fabbri, Scott Gomez · Snap, 0.34 xG3–4
- P3 2:44NYRRyan McDonaghPPAssists: Derek Stepan, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 18:26NYRDan GirardiENAssists: J.T. Miller, Chris Kreider · Slap, 0.70 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P2 12:30NYRDerick Brassard: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:02NYRRick Nash: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:26STLTroy Brouwer: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:11STLJori Lehtera: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:42NYRKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:51STLKevin Shattenkirk: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:51NYRRick Nash: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Lehtera – Tarasenko13:02
xG 0.63–0.28 (69%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Brodziak – Paajarvi – Jaskin8:00
xG 0.56–0.32 (64%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Upshall – Backes – Brouwer3:06
xG 0.28–0.03 (89%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Upshall – Backes – Fabbri6:31
xG 0.49–0.38 (56%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Parayko2:18
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Pietrangelo2:49
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Parayko10:32
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello12:03
xG 0.73–0.80 (48%)attempts 9–17goals 2–1
- Stalberg – Lindberg – Hayes8:42
xG 0.43–0.52 (45%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Stoll – Etem – Fast6:51
xG 0.01–0.15 (7%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Miller12:17
xG 0.38–0.53 (42%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Girardi – McDonagh13:31
xG 0.53–0.51 (51%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
- Boyle – Staal6:28
xG 0.24–0.40 (37%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Klein – Yandle3:44
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).