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Ice Lab

Tue, Dec 1, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Buffalo Sabres 4, Detroit Red Wings 5 (SO)

Away

Buffalo Sabres

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Detroit Red Wings

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.

DET winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
BUF1161925020432
DET213120112011546

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:34DETTomas TatarAssists: Mike Green, Gustav Nyquist · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P1 10:32DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Danny DeKeyser · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–2
  3. P1 17:30BUFEvander KaneAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Rasmus Ristolainen · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P2 4:21DETDrew MillerAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Luke Glendening · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
  5. P2 17:09BUFZemgus GirgensonsPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Matt Moulson · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–3
  6. P3 0:53BUFEvander KanePPAssists: Brian Gionta, Jamie McGinn · Snap, 0.53 xG3–3
  7. P3 3:22BUFZach BogosianAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Rasmus Ristolainen · Snap, 0.08 xG4–3
  8. P3 13:31DETJustin AbdelkaderPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
  2. 2. BUF Ryan O'Reilly stopped
  3. 3. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
  4. 4. BUF Matt Moulson stopped
  5. 5. DET Brad Richards scored
  6. 6. BUF Jack Eichel stopped
Penalties (11)
  1. P2 1:30DETTeemu Pulkkinen: Too many men on the ice2 min
  2. P2 1:41BUFEvander Kane: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 5:59DETDanny DeKeyser: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 17:04BUFEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 17:04DETBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min · PPG
  6. P2 17:04DETHenrik Zetterberg: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 19:04DETJustin Abdelkader: Fighting5 min · PPG
  8. P2 19:04DETJustin Abdelkader: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 19:04BUFJosh Gorges: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 12:51BUFBrian Gionta: Interference2 min · PPG
  11. OT 1:21DETGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
47% to win54% to win
← BUF attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Zetterberg
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFDET
32Shots on goal46
3.2Expected goals3.9
52Shot attempts62
31Faceoffs won34
5Power plays2
11Penalty minutes17
24Hits22
9Blocked shots13
5Giveaways9
2Takeaways2

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Buffalo Sabres

Forward lines

  1. bestO'Reilly – Kane – Reinhart13:51

    xG 0.86–0.67 (56%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1

  2. Legwand – Foligno – Larsson2:49

    xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0

  3. Legwand – Moulson – Foligno2:04

    xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0

  4. Gionta – Moulson – Eichel7:21

    xG 0.07–0.08 (48%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. Franson – McCabe12:59

    xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0

  2. Colaiacovo – Bogosian15:43

    xG 0.37–0.88 (30%)attempts 11–17goals 0–2

  3. Gorges – Ristolainen17:12

    xG 0.52–1.44 (26%)attempts 14–21goals 1–1

Detroit Red Wings

Forward lines

  1. bestNyquist – Tatar – Sheahan9:50

    xG 1.05–0.08 (93%)attempts 15–1goals 1–0

  2. Datsyuk – Helm – Pulkkinen6:15

    xG 0.85–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0

  3. Datsyuk – Nyquist – Tatar2:18

    xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0

  4. Miller – Pulkkinen – Glendening3:08

    xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestKronwall – Green17:08

    xG 1.66–0.47 (78%)attempts 26–11goals 1–1

  2. Ericsson – DeKeyser15:14

    xG 1.03–0.60 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1

  3. Smith – Marchenko13:45

    xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 3.9 xGBUF 3.2 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 95/100 · #52 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.46 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 15% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.

DET winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).