Tue, Dec 29, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New York Islanders 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 37 | 38 | 06 | 621 |
| TOR | 112 | 113 | 18 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:00NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 2:39TORBrad BoyesAssists: Shawn Matthias, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 11:51NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Josh Bailey, Anders Lee · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 17:45NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Nick Leddy · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 10:57TORPA ParenteauAssists: Peter Holland, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P2 11:25NYINikolay KuleminGWGAssists: Frans Nielsen · Snap, 0.04 xG4–2
- P2 18:06NYIMatt MartinAssists: Casey Cizikas, Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–2
- P2 19:20NYIAnders LeeAssists: Calvin de Haan, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.09 xG6–2
- P3 16:00TORShawn MatthiasAssists: Brad Boyes, Peter Holland · Snap, 0.31 xG6–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:25TORLeo Komarov: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:06NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:57NYIMikhail Grabovski: Holding2 min
- P2 2:04TORPeter Holland: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:05NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:44TORMartin Marincin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:19NYIKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:51TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee12:20
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Kulemin8:27
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 5–7goals 2–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:29
xG 0.11–0.31 (26%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
- Grabovski – Nelson – Strome7:46
xG 0.12–0.95 (11%)attempts 4–16goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Hickey6:26
xG 0.49–0.28 (64%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Boychuk – de Haan14:55
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 3–0
- Boychuk – Hamonic2:08
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Matthias – Holland2:36
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Boyes – Matthias – Froese4:48
xG 0.41–0.06 (88%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Parenteau – van Riemsdyk – Bozak9:28
xG 0.42–0.25 (63%)attempts 16–9goals 0–2
- Lupul – Winnik – Holland5:24
xG 0.20–0.13 (62%)attempts 11–3goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gardiner13:13
xG 0.87–0.23 (79%)attempts 21–10goals 2–3
- Polak – Marincin12:24
xG 1.09–0.63 (63%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Hunwick – Rielly15:09
xG 0.29–0.39 (43%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).