Tue, Feb 9, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 110 | 113 | 113 | 336 |
| CGY | 29 | 210 | 03 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:40CGYMarkus GranlundSHAssists: Michael Frolik, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 11:34TORPeter HollandPPAssists: Frank Corrado, Matt Hunwick · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 18:03CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Sam Bennett · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 4:06CGYMicheal FerlandAssists: Joe Colborne · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 14:08CGYDougie HamiltonGWGAssists: Markus Granlund · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
- P2 17:17TORJosh LeivoAssists: Rich Clune, Frank Corrado · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 8:37TORJake GardinerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:56CGYMatt Stajan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 11:54TORByron Froese: Holding2 min
- P1 17:57TORPA Parenteau: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 0:43CGYJosh Jooris: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 4:54CGYBrandon Bollig: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:48TORJosh Leivo: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:00TORPA Parenteau: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Grabner – Kadri11:23
xG 0.58–0.35 (62%)attempts 22–5goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Holland – Arcobello11:50
xG 0.32–0.13 (71%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Boyes – Winnik – Spaling6:43
xG 0.17–0.01 (93%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Boyes – Clune – Froese3:26
xG 0.14–0.04 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Rielly13:05
xG 0.63–0.32 (66%)attempts 20–12goals 0–1
- Polak – Gardiner16:05
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 21–6goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Corrado3:34
xG 0.19–0.04 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Hudler – Colborne – Granlund2:47
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Hudler – Ferland – Jooris5:26
xG 0.05–0.04 (58%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Jones – Ferland – Jooris2:14
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Stajan – Jones – Bollig3:14
xG 0.06–0.16 (26%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Engelland – Smid8:47
xG 0.05–0.37 (12%)attempts 4–16goals 0–2
- Russell – Hamilton15:43
xG 0.16–0.54 (23%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
- Giordano – Brodie17:37
xG 0.09–0.66 (12%)attempts 8–26goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).