Thu, Feb 11, 2016·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 113 | 113 | 010 | 236 |
| EDM | 14 | 214 | 217 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:29EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 8:06TORJosh LeivoAssists: Martin Marincin · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 6:25EDMJordan EberleAssists: Connor McDavid, Benoit Pouliot · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–2
- P2 18:36EDMJordan EberlePPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–3
- P2 19:45TORJake GardinerAssists: Leo Komarov, Brad Boyes · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 13:55EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Mark Fayne · Snap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 19:06EDMJordan EberleENAssists: Connor McDavid, Benoit Pouliot · Backhand, 0.76 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 17:13EDMEric Gryba: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:30TORNick Spaling: Holding2 min
- P2 6:41EDMDarnell Nurse: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 10:05EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min
- P2 14:17EDMEric Gryba: Holding2 min
- P2 17:20TORDaniel Winnik: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:01TORPA Parenteau: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:06EDMTaylor Hall: Embellishment2 min
- P3 9:06TORMichael Grabner: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:18EDMLauri Korpikoski: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:54TORPA Parenteau: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:54TORPA Parenteau: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:56TORMartin Marincin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Letestu won the faceoff against Spaling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Greening – Arcobello9:53
xG 1.13–0.32 (78%)attempts 20–4goals 0–1
- Clune – Froese – Leivo2:06
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Boyes – Winnik – Spaling6:18
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Boyes – Clune – Froese2:21
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarincin – Corrado7:41
xG 0.71–0.02 (98%)attempts 14–1goals 1–0
- Polak – Gardiner9:51
xG 0.72–0.22 (77%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Gardiner – Corrado2:50
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Eberle – McDavid9:35
xG 1.04–0.42 (71%)attempts 14–4goals 3–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Hall2:29
xG 0.15–0.01 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Korpikoski – Kassian3:14
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
- Letestu – Pakarinen – Yakupov5:49
xG 0.04–0.34 (10%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Nurse8:25
xG 0.51–0.28 (65%)attempts 12–6goals 1–2
- Gryba – Davidson14:00
xG 0.63–0.99 (39%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Fayne – Nurse3:02
xG 0.06–0.54 (9%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).