Sun, Feb 21, 2016·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 16 | 216 | 19 | 431 |
| BUF | 115 | 06 | 26 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:09PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Trevor Daley, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 13:48BUFZach BogosianPPAssists: Mark Pysyk, Brian Gionta · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 5:28PITScott WilsonAssists: Kris Letang, Derrick Pouliot · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 17:50PITPhil KesselAssists: Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 7:52PITMatt CullenSHGWGAssists: Carl Hagelin, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.00 xG4–1
- P3 8:05BUFBrian GiontaPPAssists: Zach Bogosian, Matt Moulson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 19:38BUFZach BogosianAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen · Slap, 0.04 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:21PITPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:47BUFMark Pysyk: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:17BUFDavid Legwand: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:45PITOlli Maatta: Interference2 min
- P2 5:11BUFJack Eichel: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:24PITConor Sheary: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:34BUFEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Wilson – Sheary8:22
xG 0.34–0.02 (94%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Cullen – Kessel – Hagelin11:12
xG 0.32–0.13 (70%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Rust – Kuhnhackl – Sundqvist10:28
xG 0.67–0.83 (44%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist13:28
xG 0.25–0.43 (36%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Pouliot11:45
xG 0.27–0.09 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Daley – Dumoulin14:32
xG 0.34–0.32 (52%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Letang – Maatta19:49
xG 0.90–0.91 (50%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Moulson – Deslauriers4:40
xG 0.45–0.09 (84%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson12:27
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- McGinn – Girgensons – Eichel9:15
xG 0.11–0.21 (34%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kane – Bailey – Reinhart9:28
xG 0.20–0.33 (38%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Ristolainen16:24
xG 0.73–0.34 (68%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- Bogosian – McCabe17:03
xG 0.16–0.41 (28%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Weber – Pysyk11:41
xG 0.50–0.86 (37%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).