Sun, Feb 21, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 06 | 25 | 27 | 418 |
| CAR | 16 | 18 | 017 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:10CARJoakim NordstromSHAssists: Jordan Staal, Jaccob Slavin · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 4:41TBLJT BrownAssists: Cedric Paquette, Andrej Sustr · Snap, 0.29 xG1–1
- P2 8:27TBLRyan CallahanAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Nesterov · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 12:59CARMichal JordanAssists: Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 14:17TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Tyler Johnson, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 19:50TBLRyan CallahanENAssists: Ondrej Palat, Cedric Paquette · Wrist, 0.59 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:55TBLNikita Nesterov: Holding2 min
- P1 9:32CARJohn-Michael Liles: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:15CARAndrej Nestrasil: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 9:14CARKris Versteeg: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:48TBLBraydon Coburn: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:21CARJordan Staal: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:41TBLOndrej Palat: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:41CARPhillip Di Giuseppe: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Brown – Paquette9:29
xG 0.86–0.33 (72%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Boyle – Condra – Namestnikov7:24
xG 0.09–0.19 (31%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Stamkos11:50
xG 0.20–0.77 (20%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Johnson – Palat – Marchessault11:17
xG 0.52–1.44 (27%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman6:41
xG 0.55–0.11 (84%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Coburn – Hedman2:36
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Carle – Hedman2:34
xG 0.06–0.06 (51%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Versteeg – Di Giuseppe12:37
xG 1.76–0.45 (80%)attempts 23–9goals 0–0
- McClement – Terry – Nash6:02
xG 0.12–0.09 (58%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom10:19
xG 0.22–0.21 (52%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm8:55
xG 0.47–0.61 (43%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Slavin14:57
xG 1.06–0.52 (67%)attempts 18–5goals 0–2
- Liles – Pesce15:04
xG 0.77–0.58 (57%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
- Jordan – Hanifin12:43
xG 0.53–0.57 (48%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).