Mon, Feb 22, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
Arizona Coyotes 2, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 09 | 17 | 111 | 227 |
| WSH | 07 | 114 | 213 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:25ARIKevin ConnautonAssists: Tobias Rieder, Viktor Tikhonov · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 6:03WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 8:17WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Justin Williams, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 8:43WSHMike RichardsGWGAssists: Tom Wilson, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–3
- P3 9:43ARIConnor MurphyAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jordan Martinook · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:43WSHJustin Williams: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:03WSHJustin Williams: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:56WSHAlex Ovechkin: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:38ARIMartin Hanzal: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:55ARIMichael Stone: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:49ARIAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:33WSHTom Wilson: Charging2 min
- P3 3:18ARIJarred Tinordi: Holding2 min
- P3 12:06WSHAlex Ovechkin: Illegal stick2 min
- P3 19:30WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Vermette – Boedker – Rieder9:47
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Chipchura – Tikhonov – Rieder4:40
xG 0.17–0.38 (31%)attempts 2–5goals 1–1
- Hanzal – Duclair – Domi9:53
xG 0.14–0.35 (28%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Doan – Richardson – Martinook10:14
xG 0.31–0.61 (34%)attempts 18–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGrossmann – Stone6:49
xG 0.22–0.02 (91%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Michalek – Tinordi7:41
xG 0.23–0.33 (42%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Stone – Connauton6:14
xG 0.13–0.28 (32%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Richards – Wilson8:47
xG 1.09–0.24 (82%)attempts 14–11goals 1–2
- Oshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky8:55
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Laich – Latta – Galiev2:52
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Williams – Ovechkin – Kuznetsov11:09
xG 0.10–0.32 (25%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner12:11
xG 0.93–0.07 (93%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Orlov – Schmidt2:01
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Orpik – Orlov11:01
xG 0.40–0.39 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).