Mon, Feb 29, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 015 | 25 | 08 | 228 |
| TOR | 09 | 011 | 112 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:53TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 15:28TBLTyler JohnsonGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 17:45TORNazem KadriAssists: Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:09TORMartin Marincin: Holding2 min
- P2 16:56TBLNikita Nesterov: Holding2 min
- P3 0:41TBLCedric Paquette: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 6:55TORNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:55TBLAlex Killorn: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:06TORConnor Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:06TBLJT Brown: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nylander won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Brown – Paquette11:26
xG 1.05–0.27 (80%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Stamkos12:58
xG 0.51–0.16 (75%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Boyle – Kucherov – Namestnikov2:26
xG 0.02–0.06 (24%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov11:55
xG 0.14–0.26 (35%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Nesterov6:58
xG 0.78–0.25 (75%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Carle – Sustr4:43
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hedman – Nesterov2:56
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Holland – Kapanen6:25
xG 0.45–0.12 (78%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Soshnikov11:13
xG 0.19–0.07 (72%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Boyes – Grabner – Holland2:03
xG 0.11–0.02 (83%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Kapanen4:12
xG 0.10–0.20 (33%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Corrado10:15
xG 0.60–0.14 (81%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Marincin – Carrick11:47
xG 0.47–0.27 (64%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Hunwick – Carrick2:26
xG 0.06–0.07 (47%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).