Tue, Mar 1, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Dallas Stars 3, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 117 | 110 | 111 | 338 |
| NSH | 110 | 314 | 110 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:38NSHCraig SmithAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Shea Weber · Snap, 0.29 xG0–1
- P1 12:48DALAntoine RousselAssists: Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 1:35NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: James Neal, Anthony Bitetto · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 9:17NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Roman Josi, Craig Smith · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 9:48NSHMattias EkholmGWGAssists: Colin Wilson, Viktor Arvidsson · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–4
- P2 16:28DALJason SpezzaPPAssists: Jamie Benn, John Klingberg · Backhand, 0.50 xG2–4
- P3 5:37NSHJames NealAssists: Shea Weber, Ryan Johansen · Slap, 0.02 xG2–5
- P3 10:30DALVernon FiddlerAssists: Alex Goligoski, Antoine Roussel · Slap, 0.03 xG3–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 15:09NSHCraig Smith: Interference2 min
- P2 8:28DALJamie Benn: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:42NSHAnthony Bitetto: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:42DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:07NSHRoman Josi: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:06NSHMiikka Salomaki: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:30DALRadek Faksa: Holding2 min
- P3 3:02DALJason Demers: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:04DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:47DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:47NSHPaul Gaustad: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Roussel – Eakin7:40
xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Sceviour – Faksa6:29
xG 0.04–0.21 (15%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Janmark – Nichushkin9:00
xG 0.13–0.53 (19%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Sharp – Benn – Seguin6:13
xG 0.10–0.64 (13%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Russell – Benn11:25
xG 0.21–0.39 (35%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Klingberg14:30
xG 0.66–1.20 (36%)attempts 15–19goals 2–1
- Oduya – Demers12:50
xG 0.22–0.82 (21%)attempts 17–13goals 0–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Smith – Forsberg9:41
xG 0.86–0.12 (87%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Johansen9:27
xG 1.05–0.48 (69%)attempts 16–9goals 2–1
- Fisher – Wilson – Arvidsson8:46
xG 0.28–0.13 (69%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Watson – Salomaki7:41
xG 0.14–0.12 (55%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi14:10
xG 1.38–0.58 (70%)attempts 22–23goals 2–1
- Ellis – Ekholm8:27
xG 0.37–0.13 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Granberg7:15
xG 0.26–0.03 (89%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).