Sat, Mar 5, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 08 | 110 | 25 | 04 | 327 |
| TBL | 15 | 110 | 111 | 14 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:43TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 13:24CARVictor RaskAssists: Phillip Di Giuseppe, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 15:41TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 3:09CARJordan StaalPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Victor Rask · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 10:18CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Phillip Di Giuseppe, Ryan Murphy · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 13:42TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 4:17TBLAlex KillornGWGAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:31TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:12CARDerek Ryan: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:22TBLValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:45CARRiley Nash: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:45CARRiley Nash: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:43TBLCedric Paquette: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:06CARRon Hainsey: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Rask – Di Giuseppe11:31
xG 0.72–0.13 (84%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Gerbe – Nash – Malone5:48
xG 0.11–0.06 (65%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Terry – McGinn – Ryan7:38
xG 0.16–0.11 (59%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Staal – Nordstrom – Lindholm11:53
xG 0.04–0.44 (9%)attempts 2–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Slavin17:37
xG 0.41–0.28 (59%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Jordan – Murphy8:17
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Pesce – Hanifin12:31
xG 0.25–0.29 (47%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov9:50
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 11–5goals 2–1
- Boyle – Condra – Namestnikov6:24
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Filppula – Brown – Paquette9:06
xG 0.15–0.23 (39%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Stamkos12:47
xG 0.19–0.34 (36%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman13:49
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Carle – Stralman2:16
xG 0.15–0.04 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Garrison – Hedman2:20
xG 0.05–0.03 (68%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).