Mon, Mar 7, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
San Jose Sharks 2, Calgary Flames 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 17 | 04 | 011 | 11 | 223 |
| CGY | 012 | 018 | 118 | 00 | 148 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:56SJSBrent BurnsUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 18:38CGYJoe ColbornePPAssists: Mark Giordano · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- OT 0:19SJSJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:39SJSJoe Thornton: Interference2 min
- P1 6:13CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min
- P1 15:03SJSBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:40SJSMelker Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:58SJSPaul Martin: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:03SJSBrent Burns: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:03SJSBrent Burns: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:03CGYGarnet Hathaway: Instigator2 min
- P2 8:03CGYGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:03SJSBrent Burns: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:03CGYGarnet Hathaway: Misconduct10 min
- P2 18:14SJSJoel Ward: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:18SJSBrenden Dillon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Couture – Donskoi – Nieto4:15
xG 0.03–0.13 (18%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Ward – Couture – Nieto7:55
xG 0.04–0.15 (19%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl12:08
xG 0.30–0.59 (34%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Tierney – Karlsson7:50
xG 0.05–0.49 (10%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Martin – Polak2:09
xG 0.01–0.01 (42%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Polak – Vlasic2:01
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun13:27
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Ferland – Hathaway4:15
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bollig – Jooris7:13
xG 0.45–0.11 (80%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Colborne – Bouma – Bennett3:54
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Frolik – Gaudreau – Monahan7:11
xG 0.05–0.03 (62%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokipakka – Wotherspoon8:38
xG 0.52–0.05 (91%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Brodie – Hamilton11:33
xG 0.62–0.21 (75%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Engelland – Brodie3:06
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).