Sat, Mar 12, 2016·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 07 | 19 | 112 | 02 | 230 |
| BUF | 05 | 19 | 17 | 13 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:42CARPhillip Di GiuseppeAssists: Jeff Skinner · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 7:52BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Brian Gionta · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 4:56BUFJack EichelAssists: Sam Reinhart, Evander Kane · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 9:01CARVictor RaskPPAssists: Riley Nash, Elias Lindholm · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–2
- OT 4:59BUFJack EichelGWGAssists: Evander Kane · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:46CARBrett Pesce: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:33BUFJohan Larsson: Interference2 min
- P1 18:35CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:49BUFEvander Kane: Holding2 min
- P2 13:22CARMichal Jordan: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:09BUFEvander Kane: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:02CARJeff Skinner: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Rask – Di Giuseppe11:38
xG 0.85–0.32 (73%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Gerbe – Terry – Nash8:26
xG 0.21–0.04 (85%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Nordstrom – Lindholm11:00
xG 0.25–0.20 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- McClement – Malone – Woods7:01
xG 0.14–0.17 (44%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Slavin15:27
xG 1.25–0.36 (78%)attempts 22–8goals 0–1
- Pesce – Hanifin14:16
xG 0.70–0.27 (72%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Jordan – Murphy12:58
xG 0.50–0.25 (67%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Foligno – Larsson11:24
xG 0.30–0.22 (57%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Foligno – Deslauriers – Girgensons2:00
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Legwand – Moulson – Catenacci4:42
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
- Kane – Reinhart – Eichel11:42
xG 0.27–0.83 (24%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Bogosian – McCabe17:10
xG 0.37–0.60 (38%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen16:07
xG 0.38–0.92 (29%)attempts 8–24goals 1–1
- Colaiacovo – Pysyk11:18
xG 0.20–0.96 (17%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).