Tue, Mar 15, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 05 | 06 | 116 | 127 |
| TOR | 06 | 19 | 39 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:34TORConnor CarrickAssists: Peter Holland, Colin Greening · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 6:33TBLBrian BoyleAssists: Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 9:07TORBen SmithGWGAssists: Michael Grabner, Milan Michalek · Snap, 0.29 xG1–2
- P3 18:27TORZach HymanENAssists: Ben Smith, Martin Marincin · Snap, 0.75 xG1–3
- P3 19:47TORPA ParenteauENAssists: Zach Hyman, Martin Marincin · Wrist, 0.63 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:53TORPA Parenteau: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:33TORFrank Corrado: Interference2 min
- P2 15:55TBLJonathan Marchessault: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:11TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:25TBLAnton Stralman: Boarding2 min
- P3 2:35TORPeter Holland: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:35TORPeter Holland: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:35TBLSteven Stamkos: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:22TBLRyan Callahan: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:22TORPA Parenteau: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Namestnikov7:56
xG 0.20–0.04 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Boyle – Blunden – Marchessault3:32
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Palat4:13
xG 0.05–0.03 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov3:35
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Carle – Sustr3:48
xG 0.04–0.02 (69%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Stralman – Nesterov4:05
xG 0.02–0.00 (91%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hedman – Nesterov3:02
xG 0.02–0.02 (48%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMichalek – Grabner – Smith6:42
xG 0.35–0.04 (90%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Laich – Greening – Holland7:06
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Hyman – Nylander9:30
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Soshnikov10:30
xG 0.04–0.11 (26%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Corrado7:03
xG 0.34–0.09 (79%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Carrick6:10
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Carrick – Valiev2:43
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).