Tue, Mar 15, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
51%
9%
10%
30%
TOR winsTBL wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
TOR forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TBL's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Johnson–Palat–Namestnikov | Boyle–Callahan–Brown | Killorn–Stamkos–Kucherov | Killorn–Johnson–Palat | Stamkos–Kucherov–Namestnikov | Boyle–Blunden–Marchessault | Blunden–Marchessault–Brown | Blunden–Stamkos–Marchessault | Blunden–Johnson–Marchessault | Stralman–Hedman | Garrison–Sustr | Coburn–Carle | Stralman–Nesterov | Carle–Sustr | Coburn–Nesterov | Hedman–Nesterov | Carle–Stralman | Garrison–Nesterov | Carle–Garrison | Coburn–Sustr | Garrison–Hedman | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Komarov–Kadri–Soshnikov | 4:490.04–0.05 | 1:080.00–0.03 | 0:560.00–0.04 | 0:470.00–0.00 | 2:100.00–0.00 | 1:080.00–0.01 | 1:500.00–0.00 | 0:560.02–0.00 | 0:570.00–0.04 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 1:080.00–0.03 | 0:580.00–0.02 | |||||||||
| Parenteau–Hyman–Nylander | 5:000.36–0.10 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 1:130.00–0.03 | 0:430.00–0.00 | 0:310.29–0.09 | 1:330.00–0.06 | 0:380.05–0.00 | 1:010.00–0.01 | 2:030.00–0.02 | 0:450.00–0.01 | 0:470.02–0.00 | 0:480.00–0.00 | |||||||||
| Laich–Greening–Holland | 2:010.00–0.02 | 0:360.06–0.00 | 0:450.00–0.00 | 0:370.02–0.00 | 1:120.05–0.00 | 1:320.02–0.02 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.00 | 0:340.00–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 0:470.11–0.01 | 0:420.05–0.00 | 0:360.06–0.00 | ||||||||
| Michalek–Grabner–Smith | 4:220.02–0.04 | 0:410.00–0.00 | 0:450.00–0.00 | 2:510.33–0.04 | 0:510.02–0.00 | 1:360.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||||
| Laich–Greening–Smith | 1:400.01–0.03 | 0:450.01–0.00 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Grabner–Kadri–Soshnikov | 1:220.00–0.26 | 0:460.00–0.26 | 0:360.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Laich–Michalek–Smith | 0:590.01–0.00 | 0:350.01–0.00 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Marincin–Rielly | 0:310.00–0.13 | 5:440.02–0.05 | 1:090.00–0.03 | 3:070.34–0.27 | 0:540.00–0.00 | 4:020.34–0.27 | 1:080.00–0.01 | 0:420.00–0.01 | 0:510.00–0.00 | 1:050.02–0.00 | 0:410.05–0.00 | 1:080.00–0.03 | 1:400.00–0.02 | 0:350.00–0.00 | |||||||
| Gardiner–Corrado | 3:290.02–0.02 | 2:160.29–0.07 | 2:570.29–0.02 | 1:330.05–0.06 | 0:490.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||||||
| Gardiner–Carrick | 0:440.01–0.02 | 1:430.10–0.02 | 1:270.03–0.00 | 0:520.00–0.06 | 0:440.02–0.00 | 1:210.08–0.00 | 1:220.00–0.06 | 0:360.02–0.02 | 0:360.06–0.00 | ||||||||||||
| Corrado–Valiev | 0:300.00–0.00 | 1:340.00–0.09 | 0:330.00–0.03 | 0:430.00–0.00 | 0:520.00–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 0:580.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||||
| Gardiner–Marincin | 0:350.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Rielly–Carrick | 1:340.00–0.04 | 1:120.00–0.04 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| Carrick–Valiev | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:450.05–0.00 | 0:540.00–0.00 | 0:410.00–0.00 | 0:500.05–0.00 | ||||||||||||||||
| Marincin–Carrick | 0:540.00–0.00 | 1:060.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Gardiner–Valiev | 0:460.00–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
TORTBLFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Morgan RiellyTOR | 31 | 27:42 | 0:54 | 1:33 | 2 | 7 |
 Martin MarincinTOR | 29 | 26:41 | 0:55 | 2:21 | 2 | 7 |
 Anton StralmanTBL | 24 | 23:27 | 0:59 | 1:57 | 5 | 1 |
 Jake GardinerTOR | 32 | 23:04 | 0:43 | 1:53 | 4 | 1 |
 Victor HedmanTBL | 22 | 22:55 | 1:03 | 1:42 | 8 | 2 |
 Steven StamkosTBL | 24 | 20:26 | 0:51 | 1:36 | 4 | 3 |
 Ondrej PalatTBL | 23 | 20:24 | 0:53 | 2:23 | 3 | 2 |
 Brian BoyleTBL | 24 | 19:47 | 0:49 | 1:22 | 3 | 3 |
 Alex KillornTBL | 23 | 19:04 | 0:50 | 1:26 | 6 | 2 |
 Tyler JohnsonTBL | 23 | 18:40 | 0:49 | 1:31 | 4 | 1 |
 Vladislav NamestnikovTBL | 22 | 17:25 | 0:48 | 1:28 | 4 | 1 |
 Nikita KucherovTBL | 20 | 17:17 | 0:52 | 1:28 | 6 | 1 |
 Nikita SoshnikovTOR | 23 | 16:28 | 0:43 | 1:33 | 2 | 3 |
 Leo KomarovTOR | 22 | 16:26 | 0:45 | 1:33 | 2 | 1 |
 Nazem KadriTOR | 22 | 16:08 | 0:44 | 1:33 | 2 | 2 |
 Ben SmithTOR | 22 | 16:00 | 0:44 | 1:17 | 1 | 5 |
 Zach HymanTOR | 22 | 15:36 | 0:43 | 1:11 | 3 | 4 |
 PA ParenteauTOR | 20 | 15:08 | 0:45 | 1:16 | 6 | 3 |
 Michael GrabnerTOR | 26 | 15:02 | 0:35 | 1:26 | 1 | 4 |
 William NylanderTOR | 19 | 14:55 | 0:47 | 1:23 | 6 | 3 |
 Brooks LaichTOR | 24 | 14:27 | 0:36 | 1:08 | 4 | 2 |
 Frank CorradoTOR | 22 | 14:27 | 0:39 | 1:10 | 0 | 2 |
 Connor CarrickTOR | 22 | 14:13 | 0:39 | 1:33 | 2 | 0 |
 Ryan CallahanTBL | 19 | 14:03 | 0:44 | 1:23 | 4 | 3 |
 Andrej SustrTBL | 17 | 13:47 | 0:49 | 1:52 | 0 | 4 |
 Nikita NesterovTBL | 14 | 13:42 | 0:59 | 1:28 | 2 | 0 |
 Braydon CoburnTBL | 18 | 13:34 | 0:45 | 1:33 | 0 | 2 |
 Colin GreeningTOR | 20 | 13:14 | 0:40 | 1:13 | 4 | 1 |
 Matt CarleTBL | 14 | 12:55 | 0:55 | 1:40 | 0 | 3 |
 Jason GarrisonTBL | 21 | 12:53 | 0:37 | 1:08 | 2 | 4 |
 JT BrownTBL | 19 | 12:46 | 0:40 | 1:15 | 2 | 3 |
 Peter HollandTOR | 19 | 12:26 | 0:39 | 1:16 | 5 | 2 |
 Jonathan MarchessaultTBL | 14 | 11:40 | 0:50 | 1:13 | 1 | 1 |
 Milan MichalekTOR | 14 | 10:40 | 0:46 | 1:13 | 1 | 2 |
 Rinat ValievTOR | 17 | 9:23 | 0:33 | 0:58 | 1 | 1 |
 Mike BlundenTBL | 13 | 9:09 | 0:42 | 1:04 | 1 | 1 |