Sat, Mar 19, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 13 | 09 | 09 | 121 |
| TOR | 011 | 17 | 313 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:31BUFBrian GiontaAssists: Marcus Foligno · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 14:55TORWilliam NylanderAssists: PA Parenteau, Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 6:56TORConnor CarrickGWGAssists: Jake Gardiner, William Nylander · Slap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 15:32TORMartin MarincinAssists: PA Parenteau, Nikita Soshnikov · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 16:46TORMilan MichalekAssists: Colin Greening, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 13:41TORMorgan Rielly: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 12:51BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:40TORFrank Corrado: Interference2 min
- P3 6:28TORNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:28BUFMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:28BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:05BUFZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:05TORPA Parenteau: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:05BUFMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:05TORZach Hyman: Boarding2 min
- P3 17:01TORZach Hyman: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Girgensons – Reinhart5:47
xG 0.19–0.05 (79%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Kane – Deslauriers2:25
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Legwand – Deslauriers – Catenacci3:28
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Foligno – Deslauriers – Larsson2:04
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pysyk8:31
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen15:26
xG 0.09–0.31 (22%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
- Bogosian – McCabe18:55
xG 0.19–0.75 (21%)attempts 11–20goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMichalek – Greening – Smith11:38
xG 0.47–0.16 (74%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Grabner – Kadri – Soshnikov11:16
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Leivo – Brown – Gauthier8:34
xG 0.16–0.14 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Hyman – Nylander10:15
xG 0.12–0.24 (35%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Carrick14:22
xG 0.52–0.15 (78%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Marincin – Rielly15:28
xG 0.53–0.20 (72%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Rielly – Valiev2:18
xG 0.10–0.01 (89%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).