Fri, Mar 25, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New York Islanders 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 112 | 27 | 112 | 431 |
| TBL | 214 | 117 | 411 | 742 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:54NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Ryan Strome, Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 13:42TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Alex Killorn, Andrej Sustr · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 13:51TBLVladislav NamestnikovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 5:02TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Alex Killorn, Jason Garrison · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 5:25NYIShane PrinceUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 16:18NYIJohnny BoychukAssists: John Tavares, Josh Bailey · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 6:03TBLAndrej SustrAssists: Jason Garrison · Slap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 6:22NYINikolay KuleminAssists: Frans Nielsen, Travis Hamonic · Snap, 0.04 xG4–4
- P3 10:09TBLTyler JohnsonGWGAssists: Ondrej Palat, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–5
- P3 10:32TBLJason GarrisonAssists: Ondrej Palat, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–6
- P3 18:35TBLVictor HedmanENAssists: Matt Carle, Ondrej Palat · Backhand, 0.46 xG4–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:44TBLJason Garrison: Holding2 min
- P1 3:37NYIJohn Tavares: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 6:50TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:10TBLTyler Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:26NYICasey Cizikas: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 11:53NYIRyan Strome: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:35NYIMatt Martin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:35TBLMike Blunden: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paquette won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Lee – Nelson – Prince10:11
xG 0.31–0.51 (38%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Kulemin11:03
xG 0.18–0.47 (28%)attempts 4–16goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:47
xG 0.03–0.36 (8%)attempts 4–13goals 0–2
- Bailey – Tavares – Strome10:45
xG 0.42–0.97 (30%)attempts 10–15goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- Boychuk – de Haan13:25
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Boychuk – Hickey2:35
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Leddy17:01
xG 0.43–0.58 (43%)attempts 16–20goals 1–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Marchessault8:16
xG 0.98–0.27 (78%)attempts 16–6goals 2–2
- Boyle – Blunden – Condra6:30
xG 0.33–0.01 (96%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Brown – Paquette10:04
xG 0.30–0.13 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Kucherov11:57
xG 0.43–0.49 (47%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sustr2:56
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Coburn – Garrison3:40
xG 0.28–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Carle – Garrison2:43
xG 0.36–0.11 (76%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).