Thu, Mar 31, 2016·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 05 | 111 | 010 | 126 |
| BUF | 216 | 117 | 14 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:09BUFJohan LarssonAssists: Brian Gionta, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 19:41BUFCal O'ReillyPPGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 3:41BUFCal O'ReillyAssists: David Legwand, Josh Gorges · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 13:32TORBrooks LaichAssists: Tobias Lindberg, Frank Corrado · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 19:57BUFJohan LarssonENAssists: Jake McCabe, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.59 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:45TORAndrew Campbell: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:12TORFrank Corrado: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:31TORTJ Brennan: Interference2 min
- P2 10:12BUFJosh Gorges: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:17BUFCasey Nelson: Holding2 min
- P3 13:53TORJake Gardiner: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:47BUFMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:57TORNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:57BUFJohan Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:57BUFJake McCabe: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Bozak – Lindberg – Kapanen11:44
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Boyes – Laich – Froese6:49
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Michalek – Grabner – Kadri9:12
xG 0.06–0.25 (18%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Greening – Nylander9:42
xG 0.08–0.36 (19%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarincin – Rielly12:31
xG 0.15–0.07 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Gardiner – Corrado13:39
xG 0.12–0.36 (26%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Brennan – Campbell10:53
xG 0.16–0.59 (22%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Foligno – Larsson10:17
xG 0.47–0.10 (82%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- O'Reilly – Girgensons – Fasching10:10
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Legwand – Moulson – O'Reilly6:11
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Reinhart – Eichel8:06
xG 0.17–0.47 (26%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – McCabe15:46
xG 0.43–0.12 (77%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Pysyk – Nelson9:43
xG 0.24–0.02 (92%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen14:44
xG 0.46–0.42 (52%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).