Wed, Oct 19, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Winnipeg Jets 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 28 | 215 | 013 | 04 | 440 |
| WPG | 010 | 111 | 312 | 11 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:46TORConnor CarrickAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 16:12TORNazem KadriAssists: Morgan Rielly, Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 6:47TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 6:55TORNazem KadriPPAssists: William Nylander, Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–0
- P2 13:04WPGTyler MyersAssists: Mark Scheifele, Shawn Matthias · Snap, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 1:00WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 6:05WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Josh Morrissey, Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 19:05WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.03 xG4–4
- OT 2:40WPGPatrik LaineGWGAssists: Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:41TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:49WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:45WPGShawn Matthias: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 10:05TORZach Hyman: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:00TORMorgan Rielly: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews13:01
xG 0.91–0.36 (72%)attempts 16–20goals 0–0
- Martin – Holland – Brown9:04
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Michalek – Komarov – Kadri12:48
xG 0.35–0.33 (51%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner11:23
xG 0.70–0.79 (47%)attempts 13–17goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Carrick10:25
xG 0.79–0.31 (72%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Marincin – Rielly17:48
xG 0.86–0.86 (50%)attempts 16–23goals 0–2
- Marincin – Zaitsev3:23
xG 0.02–0.13 (15%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Laine8:10
xG 0.78–0.56 (58%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Perreault – Ehlers5:19
xG 0.27–0.11 (70%)attempts 16–2goals 0–0
- Matthias – Lowry – Armia3:34
xG 0.09–0.02 (85%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Matthias – Lowry – Tanev6:38
xG 0.12–0.17 (40%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Myers2:47
xG 0.67–0.01 (99%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Postma – Chiarot8:15
xG 0.20–0.44 (32%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Myers19:38
xG 0.39–0.65 (38%)attempts 22–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).