Tue, Oct 25, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 7, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 39 | 16 | 39 | 724 |
| TOR | 014 | 112 | 217 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:19TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Andrej Sustr · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 7:15TBLAlex KillornAssists: Braydon Coburn, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–0
- P1 17:12TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Andrej Sustr, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 7:23TBLVictor HedmanGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–0
- P2 19:03TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 6:45TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Steven Stamkos, Vladislav Namestnikov · Snap, 0.05 xG5–1
- P3 8:28TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–2
- P3 9:47TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–3
- P3 15:10TBLVladislav NamestnikovPPAssists: Anton Stralman, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.49 xG6–3
- P3 15:56TBLJonathan DrouinPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.09 xG7–3
Penalties (7)
- P2 0:16TBLValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:26TORPeter Holland: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:41TBLNikita Nesterov: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 1:47TBLNikita Nesterov: Holding2 min
- P3 11:12TBLJason Garrison: Holding2 min
- P3 13:26TORMitch Marner: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 19:29TORNazem Kadri: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Killorn – Point13:50
xG 1.02–0.52 (66%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov11:43
xG 0.96–0.66 (59%)attempts 12–10goals 4–0
- Boyle – Brown – Paquette7:18
xG 0.11–0.20 (36%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Johnson – Palat – Drouin10:33
xG 0.25–0.54 (31%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman13:02
xG 0.89–0.33 (73%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Stralman – Nesterov3:10
xG 0.04–0.05 (41%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Coburn – Nesterov11:58
xG 1.00–1.15 (47%)attempts 8–21goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews11:40
xG 0.86–0.40 (68%)attempts 17–3goals 1–2
- Komarov – Kadri – Brown11:11
xG 0.54–0.24 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Martin – Smith – Holland7:30
xG 0.07–0.17 (30%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner12:15
xG 0.57–1.34 (30%)attempts 20–13goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Carrick10:37
xG 0.84–0.60 (59%)attempts 16–7goals 0–3
- Gardiner – Carrick4:57
xG 0.26–0.11 (72%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Polak – Hunwick4:18
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).