Wed, Nov 9, 2016·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 2, Buffalo Sabres 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 111 | 010 | 00 | 2 | 229 |
| BUF | 18 | 08 | 08 | 08 | 1 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:49BUFNick BaptisteAssists: Cole Schneider, Derek Grant · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 7:15OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Derick Brassard, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. BUF Sam Reinhart scored
- 2. OTT Kyle Turris scored
- 3. BUF Kyle Okposo stopped
- 4. OTT Bobby Ryan scored
- 5. BUF Brian Gionta stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:57BUFEvander Kane: Elbowing2 min
- P2 8:48OTTCody Ceci: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:36BUFNick Baptiste: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:12BUFDerek Grant: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:08OTTErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Dzingel10:07
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau10:44
xG 0.17–0.17 (50%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Kelly – Blunden – Puempel8:28
xG 0.04–0.16 (19%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Ryan – Brassard – Stone11:15
xG 0.18–0.52 (26%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Karlsson2:03
xG 0.07–0.02 (81%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci15:52
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Borowiecki – Claesson8:36
xG 0.05–0.07 (39%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Girgensons – Carrier8:42
xG 0.39–0.04 (90%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Grant – Schneider – Baptiste5:12
xG 0.08–0.03 (75%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Okposo – Kane – Reinhart14:45
xG 0.27–0.35 (43%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson11:42
xG 0.14–0.24 (38%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Ristolainen16:24
xG 0.61–0.31 (66%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Gorges – Ristolainen4:20
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Gorges – Nelson10:18
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).