Sat, Nov 12, 2016·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 110 | 011 | 015 | 136 |
| PIT | 014 | 215 | 220 | 449 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:22TORZach HymanAssists: Matt Hunwick, Martin Marincin · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 3:06PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Kris Letang, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 19:42PITChris KunitzGWGAssists: Bryan Rust, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
- P3 6:58PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 10:14PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:25TORNazem Kadri: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P2 2:21TORFrank Corrado: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:08PITTom Kuhnhackl: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:33TORNikita Zaitsev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:55PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews11:03
xG 0.45–0.69 (39%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Martin – Holland – Soshnikov6:15
xG 0.10–0.39 (20%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner13:02
xG 0.62–1.29 (32%)attempts 21–17goals 0–1
- Komarov – Kadri – Nylander8:57
xG 0.22–0.99 (18%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Marincin13:24
xG 0.72–0.61 (54%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Corrado15:10
xG 0.30–1.12 (21%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
- Rielly – Zaitsev13:28
xG 0.28–1.34 (17%)attempts 10–24goals 0–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Rust9:34
xG 0.98–0.37 (72%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Sheary13:12
xG 0.81–0.37 (69%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Kessel – Bonino – Hagelin11:30
xG 0.69–0.39 (64%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Kuhnhackl9:46
xG 0.43–0.33 (57%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz13:47
xG 1.17–0.33 (78%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin17:54
xG 0.87–0.37 (70%)attempts 25–13goals 1–0
- Daley – Maatta16:04
xG 0.47–0.75 (39%)attempts 10–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).