Sun, Nov 20, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Calgary Flames 3, Detroit Red Wings 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 110 | 26 | 326 |
| DET | 110 | 06 | 17 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:06DETTomas TatarAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Alexey Marchenko · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 3:40CGYGarnet HathawayAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Micheal Ferland · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 2:31CGYMatt StajanAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Hunter Shinkaruk · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 7:59DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 12:14CGYMikael BacklundGWGAssists: Michael Frolik, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:40CGYBrett Kulak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:35CGYSam Bennett: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:33DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:13DETJimmy Howard: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk15:22
xG 0.84–0.18 (82%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Stajan – Chiasson – Shinkaruk9:45
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Ferland – Hathaway6:34
xG 0.26–0.12 (68%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Monahan – Bennett13:55
xG 0.13–0.81 (13%)attempts 5–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Kulak12:46
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Giordano – Hamilton17:05
xG 0.56–0.41 (58%)attempts 15–8goals 3–0
- Wideman – Brodie17:06
xG 0.49–0.49 (50%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha12:09
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Vanek – Larkin10:55
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Tatar – Sheahan13:16
xG 0.52–0.53 (50%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Ott – Miller – Glendening4:59
xG 0.11–0.29 (28%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Marchenko10:15
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Ericsson – Sproul2:37
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kronwall – DeKeyser3:22
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).