Wed, Nov 23, 2016·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Detroit Red Wings 2, Buffalo Sabres 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 112 | 04 | 01 | 2 | 224 |
| BUF | 09 | 09 | 112 | 03 | 1 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:00DETGustav NyquistAssists: Thomas Vanek, Ryan Sproul · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P3 1:42BUFBrian GiontaUnassisted · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. BUF Kyle Okposo stopped
- 2. DET Gustav Nyquist scored
- 3. BUF Sam Reinhart scored
- 4. DET Thomas Vanek scored
- 5. BUF Cal O'Reilly stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:18DETThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:18DETThomas Vanek: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:43BUFDerek Grant: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:04BUFJustin Falk: Interference2 min
- P3 2:32DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheahan won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Mantha10:05
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Vanek – Nyquist – Larkin9:31
xG 0.44–0.43 (50%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Ott – Sheahan – Bertuzzi8:06
xG 0.13–0.12 (51%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Tatar – Glendening8:32
xG 0.12–0.37 (25%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Sproul2:59
xG 0.39–0.08 (82%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Green – DeKeyser15:27
xG 0.48–0.46 (51%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green2:00
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Foligno – Larsson7:53
xG 0.62–0.16 (79%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Okposo – O'Reilly – Foligno4:39
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Grant – Carrier5:06
xG 0.06–0.06 (51%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gionta – Kane – Larsson5:30
xG 0.14–0.15 (49%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Ristolainen18:36
xG 1.28–0.41 (76%)attempts 26–10goals 1–0
- Franson – McCabe15:07
xG 0.36–0.22 (61%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Falk – Fedun10:23
xG 0.09–0.16 (36%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).