Tue, Dec 20, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Calgary Flames 1, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 010 | 15 | 121 |
| SJS | 011 | 414 | 09 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:35SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Joe Thornton · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 9:18SJSPaul MartinGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Slap, 0.01 xG0–2
- P2 14:23SJSJoonas DonskoiAssists: Tommy Wingels, Joe Pavelski · Snap, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 16:19SJSJoonas DonskoiUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–4
- P3 1:19CGYSam BennettAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Dennis Wideman · Slap, 0.12 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:58CGYJyrki Jokipakka: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:08CGYDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:09SJSBrenden Dillon: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:49CGYLance Bouma: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 10:57CGYMark Giordano: Holding2 min
- P3 15:32CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk9:06
xG 0.38–0.19 (66%)attempts 13–4goals 0–2
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Monahan4:37
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Chiasson – Bennett3:26
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Gaudreau – Monahan4:04
xG 0.33–0.40 (45%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Wideman – Brodie14:09
xG 0.76–0.73 (51%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Giordano – Hamilton13:00
xG 0.70–1.01 (41%)attempts 15–16goals 0–2
- Engelland – Jokipakka14:11
xG 0.22–0.84 (20%)attempts 6–17goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Pavelski9:33
xG 0.88–0.29 (75%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Donskoi – Tierney – Meier9:33
xG 0.34–0.20 (62%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Couture – Boedker – Labanc9:36
xG 0.70–0.66 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Haley – Wingels – Karlsson7:01
xG 0.03–0.14 (15%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – DeMelo14:02
xG 0.67–0.21 (76%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun11:33
xG 0.82–0.61 (57%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Martin – Braun2:20
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).