Tue, Dec 27, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Ottawa Senators 3, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 312 | 014 | 010 | 336 |
| NYR | 17 | 210 | 18 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:02OTTMark BorowieckiAssists: Mike Hoffman, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 3:10OTTZack SmithAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 11:37NYRNick HoldenAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Hayes · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 16:56OTTCody CeciAssists: Mike Hoffman, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 2:45NYRDerek StepanAssists: Chris Kreider, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 14:55NYRDerek StepanPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Ryan McDonagh · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 6:31NYRNick HoldenGWGAssists: Brady Skjei, Matt Puempel · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (16)
- P1 10:25OTTKyle Turris: Holding2 min
- P1 10:25NYRMarc Staal: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:43OTTRyan Dzingel: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:57NYRChris Kreider: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:31NYRMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:31NYRKevin Klein: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:31OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:47NYRMarc Staal: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:47OTTDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:49OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 18:49OTTChris Kelly: Holding2 min
- P3 4:14NYRJimmy Vesey: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:14OTTMark Stone: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:27OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:07NYRMichael Grabner: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:32NYRMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Hoffman – Stone4:05
xG 0.38–0.08 (83%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau4:13
xG 0.38–0.11 (77%)attempts 5–2goals 2–0
- Brassard – Smith – Stone6:26
xG 0.23–0.03 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Neil – Kelly – Lazar3:42
xG 0.12–0.07 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Wideman7:48
xG 0.68–0.11 (87%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci12:43
xG 0.59–0.43 (58%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Methot – Karlsson13:13
xG 0.42–0.51 (45%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Lindberg – Fast – Puempel5:50
xG 0.35–0.44 (45%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Pirri – Hrivik – Miller5:26
xG 0.11–0.28 (28%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello12:04
xG 0.22–0.45 (32%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Grabner – Hayes – Vesey8:42
xG 0.24–0.75 (24%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Staal – Holden12:43
xG 0.35–0.53 (40%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Klein – Skjei9:44
xG 0.17–0.36 (32%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Girardi – McDonagh12:57
xG 0.39–0.99 (28%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).