Tue, Dec 27, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Buffalo Sabres 4, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 212 | 16 | 14 | 422 |
| DET | 013 | 210 | 120 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:12BUFEvander KaneAssists: Brian Gionta, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–0
- P1 15:54BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Jack Eichel · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 14:46DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Steve Ott, Anthony Mantha · Snap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 15:08BUFJack EichelAssists: Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 16:14DETDrew MillerAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
- P3 6:33DETThomas VanekPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 8:29BUFEvander KaneGWGAssists: Brian Gionta, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:40DETFrans Nielsen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:56BUFMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:56DETAnthony Mantha: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:41DETBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:55BUFDmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:21DETLuke Glendening: Holding2 min
- P2 19:21BUFEvander Kane: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:21DETBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:03BUFSam Reinhart: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Deslauriers – Larsson2:32
xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Deslauriers – Larsson2:02
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–1
- Gionta – Kane – Larsson10:49
xG 0.48–0.55 (47%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
- Grant – Deslauriers – Carrier4:20
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gorges – Ristolainen2:08
xG 0.07–0.05 (59%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gorges – Falk9:41
xG 0.48–0.51 (48%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Bogosian – McCabe19:19
xG 0.49–0.61 (45%)attempts 5–20goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Vanek – Nyquist12:14
xG 0.85–0.37 (70%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Miller – Tatar – Sheahan2:04
xG 0.27–0.03 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Tatar – Mantha9:58
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Ott – Mantha2:11
xG 0.01–0.03 (24%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Smith13:31
xG 1.05–0.10 (92%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser14:58
xG 0.69–0.39 (64%)attempts 20–12goals 2–1
- Kronwall – Jensen2:14
xG 0.04–0.03 (55%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).