Sat, Dec 31, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 06 | 112 | 09 | 127 |
| TBL | 212 | 17 | 06 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:35TBLBrian BoylePPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–1
- P1 19:50TBLJonathan DrouinPPGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 13:22TBLAlex KillornAssists: Matthew Peca, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 15:20CARSebastian AhoAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Teuvo Teravainen · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:01CARNoah Hanifin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:53TBLAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:47CARLee Stempniak: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:12CARViktor Stalberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:49TBLJason Garrison: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:32TBLJonathan Drouin: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:46TBLAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Teravainen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Teravainen – Aho12:12
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- McClement – Stalberg – Nordstrom7:35
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Staal – McGinn – Ryan2:36
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Nestrasil – Skinner – Rask2:51
xG 0.08–0.11 (41%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Murphy12:56
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Tennyson2:08
xG 0.16–0.05 (77%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce15:04
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Boyle – Drouin5:52
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bournival – Brown – Gourde6:20
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Filppula – Bournival – Drouin3:48
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Killorn – Peca – Namestnikov10:05
xG 0.49–0.61 (44%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sustr3:37
xG 0.30–0.05 (86%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Stralman – Hedman12:10
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Coburn – Sustr10:56
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).