Fri, Jan 13, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Buffalo Sabres 2, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 113 | 113 | 012 | 238 |
| CAR | 08 | 314 | 216 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:24BUFWilliam CarrierAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 1:48CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Derek Ryan, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 2:43CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 6:51CARBrock McGinnGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, Ron Hainsey · Backhand, 0.29 xG1–3
- P2 11:49BUFBrian GiontaSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 4:15CARVictor RaskAssists: Noah Hanifin, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 7:58CARBrock McGinnAssists: Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:23CARJay McClement: Interference2 min
- P1 10:19BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Holding2 min
- P1 15:02BUFTaylor Fedun: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:55BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Boarding2 min
- P3 8:26BUFTaylor Fedun: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:02CARJordan Staal: Kneeing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Deslauriers – Girgensons4:00
xG 0.32–0.10 (76%)attempts 7–1goals 0–1
- Foligno – Reinhart – Eichel2:31
xG 0.32–0.15 (67%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Bailey – Reinhart3:37
xG 0.52–0.36 (59%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Gionta – Deslauriers – Girgensons2:06
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Bogosian14:11
xG 0.92–0.53 (63%)attempts 18–8goals 0–2
- Bogosian – Ristolainen2:19
xG 0.27–0.24 (52%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen12:13
xG 0.74–1.01 (42%)attempts 11–17goals 0–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – McGinn – Lindholm11:58
xG 1.30–0.46 (74%)attempts 17–15goals 2–0
- Skinner – Rask – Teravainen4:14
xG 0.58–0.03 (95%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Aho – Ryan3:10
xG 0.21–0.04 (84%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Teravainen – Aho6:01
xG 0.10–0.32 (24%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce14:16
xG 1.10–0.67 (62%)attempts 18–18goals 2–1
- Faulk – Hanifin3:09
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Faulk15:12
xG 1.00–0.87 (54%)attempts 13–20goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).