Sat, Jan 14, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 110 | 18 | 29 | 427 |
| OTT | 014 | 28 | 015 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:26TORNazem KadriPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.55 xG1–0
- P2 1:07TORTyler BozakAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 9:15OTTDion PhaneufAssists: Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 18:10OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Bobby Ryan, Ryan Dzingel · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 2:31TORNazem KadriGWGAssists: William Nylander, Matt Hunwick · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 7:52TORConnor BrownAssists: Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:34OTTZack Smith: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:01TORFrederik Gauthier: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:30OTTRyan Dzingel: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:30TORNikita Zaitsev: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Nylander12:06
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Martin – Gauthier – Soshnikov8:00
xG 0.15–0.36 (29%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner13:09
xG 0.36–0.63 (36%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews13:18
xG 0.51–0.98 (34%)attempts 11–20goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Hunwick12:27
xG 0.55–0.37 (60%)attempts 12–16goals 2–1
- Rielly – Zaitsev20:56
xG 0.38–0.82 (32%)attempts 13–24goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Carrick15:08
xG 0.50–1.01 (33%)attempts 23–21goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Smith – Stone14:44
xG 0.71–0.19 (79%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Dzingel12:25
xG 0.84–0.70 (55%)attempts 13–18goals 1–2
- Neil – Kelly – Lazar5:26
xG 0.20–0.08 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau13:41
xG 0.47–0.48 (49%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson10:33
xG 0.67–0.27 (72%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Karlsson8:36
xG 0.38–0.08 (83%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci8:55
xG 0.70–0.49 (59%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).