Sat, Jan 21, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 113 | 04 | 18 | 02 | 2 | 327 |
| TOR | 07 | 115 | 17 | 04 | 1 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:02OTTBobby RyanAssists: Marc Methot, Chris Neil · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 7:31TORTyler BozakPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 7:00TORMatt MartinAssists: Jake Gardiner, Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 18:49OTTMike HoffmanPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Dion Phaneuf · Slap, 0.38 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
- 2. OTT Bobby Ryan scored
- 3. TOR Mitch Marner scored
- 4. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
- 5. TOR James van Riemsdyk stopped
- 6. OTT Erik Karlsson stopped
- 7. TOR Tyler Bozak stopped
- 8. OTT Tom Pyatt scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:36TORNikita Zaitsev: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:24TORNikita Zaitsev: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:08OTTMarc Methot: Interference2 min
- P1 18:29TORLeo Komarov: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:02OTTDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:28OTTBobby Ryan: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 17:13TORMartin Marincin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Ryan – Turris2:13
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Brassard – Smith – Stone6:23
xG 0.40–0.35 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau7:27
xG 0.05–0.17 (22%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Brassard – Hoffman – Stone4:08
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Methot – Ceci2:25
xG 0.05–0.02 (67%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Wideman – Claesson8:41
xG 0.09–0.30 (22%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson14:04
xG 0.29–0.56 (34%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Nylander9:24
xG 0.52–0.22 (71%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner11:12
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Martin – Gauthier – Soshnikov6:48
xG 0.06–0.11 (36%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews11:03
xG 0.46–0.80 (37%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarincin – Zaitsev13:55
xG 0.97–0.17 (85%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Polak – Hunwick9:53
xG 0.38–0.11 (77%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Polak – Gardiner2:46
xG 0.19–0.17 (52%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).