Sat, Feb 11, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 310 | 09 | 04 | 323 |
| TOR | 013 | 113 | 018 | 144 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:13BUFEvander KaneAssists: Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 5:08BUFSam ReinhartPPGWGAssists: Kyle Okposo, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 18:02BUFEvander KaneAssists: Jack Eichel, Justin Falk · Snap, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 15:57TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, Nikita Zaitsev · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:39TORJake Gardiner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:16BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:16TORJames van Riemsdyk: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:29BUFTyler Ennis: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:22BUFKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:12BUFJosh Gorges: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:56TORMorgan Rielly: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:56BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKane – Reinhart – Eichel11:44
xG 0.45–0.20 (70%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Rodrigues9:06
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Grant3:55
xG 0.05–0.34 (13%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Okposo – O'Reilly – Bailey12:50
xG 0.42–0.82 (34%)attempts 15–23goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen16:47
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 10–21goals 1–0
- Falk – Fedun11:05
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Falk – Kulikov2:28
xG 0.00–0.45 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMartin – Smith – Leivo6:59
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner9:08
xG 0.48–0.40 (55%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews13:44
xG 0.64–0.57 (53%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Komarov – Kadri – Nylander11:04
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Hunwick13:09
xG 0.90–0.38 (70%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Rielly – Zaitsev15:18
xG 0.89–0.40 (69%)attempts 24–15goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Zaitsev2:30
xG 0.19–0.11 (62%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).