Mon, Feb 13, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Arizona Coyotes 5, Calgary Flames 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 19 | 314 | 19 | 532 |
| CGY | 019 | 08 | 09 | 036 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:45ARIMartin HanzalGWGAssists: Radim Vrbata, Max Domi · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 2:38ARIChristian DvorakAssists: Brendan Perlini, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 4:04ARIJordan MartinookAssists: Ryan White, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P2 11:08ARIRyan WhiteAssists: Luke Schenn, Christian Dvorak · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–0
- P3 2:12ARIChristian DvorakAssists: Shane Doan, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.38 xG5–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:15ARIChristian Dvorak: Holding2 min
- P2 15:07ARIJosh Jooris: Holding2 min
- P3 7:30CGYKris Versteeg: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:42ARIBrendan Perlini: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 10:03ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 12:47ARITobias Rieder: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Burmistrov won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhite – Martinook – Jooris10:19
xG 0.84–0.13 (87%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Doan – Perlini – Dvorak10:20
xG 0.73–0.71 (51%)attempts 4–12goals 2–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Domi10:36
xG 0.38–0.37 (51%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- McGinn – Burmistrov – Rieder9:59
xG 0.29–0.96 (23%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Ekman-Larsson16:37
xG 1.94–0.67 (74%)attempts 22–16goals 4–0
- Connauton – Murphy14:23
xG 0.36–0.30 (55%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Stone12:46
xG 0.18–1.35 (12%)attempts 4–20goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Gaudreau – Monahan5:18
xG 0.94–0.12 (89%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Chiasson – Bennett11:38
xG 0.84–0.57 (60%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Stajan – Gaudreau – Hathaway6:50
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Ferland – Bennett2:11
xG 0.02–0.07 (22%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Brodie11:17
xG 0.87–0.56 (61%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
- Engelland – Kulak8:05
xG 0.63–0.38 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Giordano – Hamilton14:38
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).