Sat, Feb 18, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 214 | 016 | 412 | 642 |
| TOR | 015 | 210 | 112 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:26OTTChris WidemanAssists: Derick Brassard, Mark Stone · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 17:46OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Marc Methot, Mark Stone · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 14:38TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Auston Matthews, William Nylander · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 17:52TORNazem KadriAssists: Josh Leivo · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 2:04TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Leo Komarov · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 5:32OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Kyle Turris, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 6:26OTTDerick BrassardPPGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.61 xG4–3
- P3 18:10OTTMark StoneENAssists: Kyle Turris · Snap, 0.46 xG5–3
- P3 19:15OTTDerick BrassardENAssists: Kyle Turris, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.65 xG6–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:12TORRoman Polak: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:12OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:03TORJake Gardiner: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:21OTTTom Pyatt: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:59OTTKyle Turris: Holding2 min
- P1 18:14OTTBobby Ryan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:29TORMatt Martin: Interference2 min
- P2 9:40TORZach Hyman: Holding2 min
- P3 0:45OTTZack Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:12TORNazem Kadri: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Hoffman5:02
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Kelly – Pyatt – Pageau2:42
xG 0.01–0.06 (20%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Hoffman3:46
xG 0.06–0.17 (25%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Brassard – Stone – Dzingel6:31
xG 0.52–0.86 (38%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Wideman4:57
xG 0.23–0.06 (78%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson15:10
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
- Borowiecki – Wideman5:33
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Leivo10:07
xG 1.03–0.27 (79%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown10:32
xG 0.37–0.26 (59%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews11:17
xG 0.54–0.50 (52%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Martin – Smith – Soshnikov6:41
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Zaitsev16:03
xG 1.33–0.74 (64%)attempts 23–19goals 2–3
- Gardiner – Carrick15:30
xG 0.57–0.39 (59%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Polak – Hunwick10:46
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).