Sun, Mar 5, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Buffalo Sabres 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 321 | 010 | 018 | 349 |
| PIT | 013 | 216 | 216 | 445 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:19BUFRyan O'ReillyAssists: Brian Gionta, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 14:53BUFBrian GiontaPPAssists: Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–0
- P1 18:07BUFJack EichelAssists: Marcus Foligno, Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.35 xG3–0
- P2 7:45PITJustin SchultzAssists: Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 13:42PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Patric Hornqvist · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 16:14PITJake GuentzelAssists: Conor Sheary, Nick Bonino · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 17:04PITConor ShearyGWGAssists: Justin Schultz, Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:12PITTom Kuhnhackl: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:33PITCarl Hagelin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:35PITCarl Hagelin: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:42BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 4:41PITScott Wilson: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:57BUFJustin Falk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:34BUFJack Eichel: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:34PITPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:39BUFTyler Ennis: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:05BUFEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:09PITJustin Schultz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:55BUFEvander Kane: Broken stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Reinhart – Eichel8:47
xG 0.56–0.27 (68%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Gionta – O'Reilly – Kane9:06
xG 0.49–0.31 (62%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Foligno – Girgensons – Bailey2:00
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Ennis – Deslauriers – Girgensons5:40
xG 0.00–0.56 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gorges – Franson10:27
xG 0.56–0.66 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen15:07
xG 0.66–1.35 (33%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
- Falk – Bogosian11:00
xG 0.39–1.29 (23%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – Sheary5:21
xG 0.72–0.33 (69%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin8:03
xG 0.36–0.08 (82%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Cullen – Kunitz – Hornqvist2:54
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Sheary3:46
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Hainsey13:31
xG 1.81–0.64 (74%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Schultz – Dumoulin11:30
xG 0.76–0.47 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 2–1
- Cole – Ruhwedel8:57
xG 0.32–0.51 (38%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).