Sat, Mar 11, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 16 | 010 | 11 | 326 |
| CAR | 112 | 114 | 011 | 01 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:59CARVictor RaskAssists: Elias Lindholm, Brett Pesce · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 9:52TORMitch MarnerAssists: Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 0:45CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Jordan Staal, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 7:37TORJames van RiemsdykUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 2:13TORMorgan RiellyGWGAssists: William Nylander, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 19:01TORNikita Zaitsev: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:23CARCam Ward: Interference2 min
- P3 0:42TORMartin Marincin: Holding2 min
- P3 11:27CARJoakim Nordstrom: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Rask
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner11:48
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
- Boyle – Martin – Soshnikov8:19
xG 0.31–0.06 (84%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews2:29
xG 0.06–0.06 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Brown9:24
xG 0.40–0.44 (48%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gardiner – Marincin11:03
xG 0.82–0.80 (51%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Polak – Hunwick13:32
xG 0.11–0.20 (36%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
- Rielly – Zaitsev15:30
xG 0.41–0.51 (44%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Rask – Lindholm12:17
xG 0.80–0.21 (80%)attempts 23–7goals 1–1
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho12:11
xG 0.54–0.42 (56%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Nordstrom – Ryan9:38
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce8:13
xG 0.67–0.18 (79%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Faulk – Hanifin8:04
xG 0.31–0.03 (92%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Faulk – Slavin8:25
xG 0.22–0.18 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).