Sat, Mar 11, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Ottawa Senators 4, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 011 | 314 | 16 | 431 |
| COL | 110 | 04 | 12 | 216 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:38COLMatt NietoAssists: Cody Goloubef, Blake Comeau · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 10:41OTTFredrik ClaessonAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Tom Pyatt · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 15:35OTTAlexandre BurrowsPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 18:54OTTMike HoffmanGWGAssists: Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 11:22OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Derick Brassard, Alexandre Burrows · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–1
- P3 19:48COLSven AndrighettoPPAssists: Joe Colborne, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:27OTTChristopher DiDomenico: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:40OTTViktor Stalberg: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:16COLFedor Tyutin: Holding2 min
- P2 15:08COLRene Bourque: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:34OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:03COLRene Bourque: Interference2 min
- P3 13:36COLFrancois Beauchemin: Boarding2 min
- P3 14:30OTTZack Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:35COLGabriel Landeskog: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:35OTTRyan Dzingel: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 18:22OTTDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Smith – Dzingel5:12
xG 1.07–0.15 (87%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau7:38
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Kelly – Stalberg – Wingels5:33
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Varone – Dzingel2:07
xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Claesson5:01
xG 0.75–0.01 (98%)attempts 16–1goals 1–0
- Methot – Karlsson9:46
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Wideman4:08
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen3:55
xG 0.08–0.04 (64%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Bourque – Landeskog – MacKinnon6:04
xG 0.05–0.04 (53%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Comeau – Nieto7:28
xG 0.23–0.31 (43%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Andrighetto – Compher – Rantanen6:55
xG 0.05–0.17 (22%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Barrie12:37
xG 0.40–0.20 (66%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Barrie2:55
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Barberio – Barrie2:05
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).