Thu, Mar 16, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 15 | 414 | 02 | 521 |
| TBL | 07 | 014 | 012 | 033 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:19TORRoman PolakGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 2:24TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Nazem Kadri, Alexey Marchenko · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 2:39TORMatt MartinAssists: Matt Hunwick, Nikita Soshnikov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 6:14TORConnor BrownPPAssists: Leo Komarov, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.34 xG4–0
- P2 15:41TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:09TBLOndrej Palat: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:02TBLLuke Witkowski: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:41TORBrian Boyle: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:47TORNikita Zaitsev: Interference2 min
- P2 18:37TORMatt Hunwick: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:00TORLeo Komarov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 5:49TBLYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:49TORNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:49TORNazem Kadri: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:39TORJames van Riemsdyk: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:39TBLLuke Witkowski: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:13TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Brown9:28
xG 0.35–0.22 (62%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner9:18
xG 0.39–0.35 (52%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Boyle – Martin – Soshnikov9:27
xG 0.15–0.21 (42%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews10:31
xG 0.26–0.65 (29%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Rielly6:52
xG 0.42–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–3goals 2–0
- Polak – Hunwick9:10
xG 0.38–0.27 (58%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Hunwick – Zaitsev3:00
xG 0.07–0.03 (70%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Gourde – Drouin7:27
xG 0.54–0.15 (79%)attempts 13–5goals 0–2
- Killorn – Froese – Gourde3:37
xG 0.14–0.15 (47%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Dumont – McKegg – Brown5:06
xG 0.05–0.08 (37%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Palat – Kucherov – Point12:07
xG 0.28–0.36 (43%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Garrison9:48
xG 0.49–0.21 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Coburn – Sustr9:07
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Hedman – Dotchin11:14
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).