Sat, Mar 18, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Washington Capitals 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 210 | 013 | 312 | 535 |
| TBL | 210 | 08 | 111 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:44WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 11:52WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 15:52TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
- P1 16:08TBLAlex KillornAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 3:14WSHJustin WilliamsAssists: Matt Niskanen, Andre Burakovsky · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 5:30WSHJohn CarlsonGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 18:30TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 19:16WSHT.J. OshieENAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.63 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:33TBLLuke Witkowski: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 15:24WSHT.J. Oshie: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:37TBLGreg McKegg: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:37WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:37WSHJohn Carlson: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:37TBLJT Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:01TBLJonathan Drouin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Connolly – Burakovsky5:29
xG 0.35–0.05 (88%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson9:41
xG 0.27–0.33 (45%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Williams – Winnik – Kuznetsov2:40
xG 0.02–0.10 (16%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom15:57
xG 0.46–0.55 (45%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner2:33
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov16:32
xG 0.43–0.35 (55%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Alzner – Carlson17:38
xG 0.56–0.75 (42%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestDumont – Froese – Erne8:21
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point18:40
xG 0.56–0.48 (54%)attempts 17–19goals 0–1
- Killorn – Gourde – Drouin11:19
xG 0.37–0.31 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman11:41
xG 0.38–0.11 (78%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Stralman – Garrison5:09
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Coburn – Sustr8:34
xG 0.40–0.32 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).