Mon, Mar 20, 2017·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Buffalo Sabres 2, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 113 | 18 | 09 | 230 |
| DET | 05 | 112 | 018 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:59BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Rasmus Ristolainen · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 8:59BUFMatt MoulsonPPGWGAssists: Tyler Ennis, Jake McCabe · Deflected, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 12:53DETTomas TatarAssists: Mike Green, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:50BUFJack Eichel: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:30DETMike Green: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:42DETTomas Tatar: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:38BUFJake McCabe: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:45BUFJosh Gorges: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:25BUFBrady Austin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – O'Reilly – Eichel13:49
xG 0.76–0.34 (69%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Moulson – Bailey – Reinhart5:23
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Fasching – Rodrigues9:32
xG 0.48–0.57 (46%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Gionta – Kane – Girgensons8:36
xG 0.23–0.90 (21%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Ristolainen16:47
xG 0.95–0.47 (67%)attempts 22–16goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Austin13:47
xG 0.87–0.76 (53%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen2:01
xG 0.03–0.30 (8%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Mantha – Nosek2:15
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar13:03
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Sheahan – Mantha3:03
xG 0.54–0.31 (64%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Miller – Glendening – Nosek3:09
xG 0.12–0.01 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Ouellet6:27
xG 0.85–0.01 (99%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green4:04
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Russo – Ouellet9:37
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).