Tue, Mar 21, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 113 | 012 | 210 | 335 |
| BUF | 013 | 06 | 111 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:51PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Conor Sheary · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 2:09BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Hudson Fasching, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 14:31PITNick BoninoGWGAssists: Ian Cole, Tom Kuhnhackl · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 16:29PITConor ShearyUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:46BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Misconduct10 min
- P1 8:46BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference5 min
- P1 19:12BUFZemgus Girgensons: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:05BUFCasey Nelson: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:44PITChad Ruhwedel: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:35BUFEvander Kane: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Girgensons won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Sheary9:51
xG 0.56–0.27 (68%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Bonino – Kuhnhackl9:08
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Cullen – Hornqvist – Bonino2:28
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Hornqvist – Bonino2:28
xG 0.11–0.07 (60%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Ruhwedel12:55
xG 0.77–0.58 (57%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Streit – Schultz4:37
xG 0.20–0.14 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Streit – Corrado6:01
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Fasching – Rodrigues5:43
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Fasching – Reinhart2:28
xG 0.15–0.07 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Kane – Bailey – Rodrigues2:00
xG 0.12–0.05 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Moulson – Bailey – Reinhart6:20
xG 0.13–0.10 (55%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Austin13:44
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- McCabe – Nelson11:03
xG 0.42–0.33 (56%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Gorges – McCabe4:26
xG 0.07–0.08 (46%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).