Sat, Mar 25, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 111 | 111 | 012 | 234 |
| BUF | 216 | 316 | 06 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:05BUFRyan O'ReillyAssists: Tyler Ennis, Kyle Okposo · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 9:30TORConnor BrownUnassisted · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P1 9:45BUFEvander KaneAssists: Zach Bogosian, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–2
- P2 2:22TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Matt Hunwick, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–2
- P2 2:47BUFJack EichelPPGWGAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Kyle Okposo · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 5:59BUFDmitry KulikovPPAssists: Tyler Ennis, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P2 13:12BUFJack EichelAssists: Sam Reinhart, Justin Falk · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:49BUFKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:10BUFDmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
- P1 16:10TORNazem Kadri: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 2:38TORMatt Martin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:59TORJake Gardiner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:18BUFMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:04BUFTyler Ennis: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews9:40
xG 0.63–0.22 (74%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Komarov – Kadri – Brown11:45
xG 0.65–0.32 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner13:21
xG 0.59–1.01 (37%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
- Boyle – Martin – Smith8:48
xG 0.20–0.81 (20%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Carrick10:54
xG 0.65–0.35 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Hunwick – Rielly4:27
xG 0.67–0.42 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Hunwick – Zaitsev2:53
xG 0.16–0.11 (60%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Ennis – O'Reilly10:38
xG 0.70–0.27 (72%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Moulson – Girgensons – Carrier5:27
xG 0.46–0.13 (77%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Gionta – Kane – Rodrigues10:28
xG 0.42–0.32 (57%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Foligno – Reinhart – Eichel10:12
xG 0.22–0.14 (60%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Falk13:13
xG 0.51–0.03 (94%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Austin14:21
xG 0.80–0.33 (71%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Kulikov – McCabe18:42
xG 1.06–1.38 (43%)attempts 19–29goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).