Thu, Mar 30, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 110 | 115 | 334 |
| TBL | 19 | 312 | 111 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:22DETFrans NielsenAssists: Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 18:58TBLJT BrownAssists: Gabriel Dumont · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 2:22TBLAndrej SustrAssists: Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 12:46DETDanny DeKeyserAssists: Tomas Tatar, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 16:13TBLAlex KillornPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 18:04TBLJonathan DrouinPPGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 6:03TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Ondrej Palat, Andrej Sustr · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–5
- P3 8:18DETMike GreenPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:47TBLLuke Witkowski: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:47DETAnthony Mantha: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:41TBLJT Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:41DETXavier Ouellet: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:31DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:31TBLJake Dotchin: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:47DETDylan Larkin: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:42DETDanny DeKeyser: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:11TBLGreg McKegg: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Sheahan – Larkin2:20
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Miller – Sheahan – Nosek5:50
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Helm – Sheahan2:47
xG 0.06–0.13 (33%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Athanasiou – Larkin8:53
xG 0.13–0.22 (38%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRusso – Ouellet4:39
xG 0.19–0.11 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Green18:27
xG 0.66–0.69 (49%)attempts 21–17goals 0–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser5:27
xG 0.06–0.12 (31%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Gourde – Point6:43
xG 0.48–0.03 (94%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Killorn – Namestnikov – Drouin7:11
xG 0.13–0.06 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Namestnikov – Gourde5:48
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Gourde – Vermin – Erne2:10
xG 0.01–0.03 (17%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sustr8:12
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Stralman – Witkowski6:33
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Stralman – Sustr3:02
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).