Mon, Apr 3, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Buffalo Sabres 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 70% of the time.
20%
9%
62%
BUF winsTOR wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
BUF forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TOR's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Hyman–Nylander–Matthews | van Riemsdyk–Bozak–Marner | Komarov–Kadri–Brown | Boyle–Martin–Kapanen | Komarov–Bozak–Kadri | Gardiner–Zaitsev | Rielly–Carrick | Polak–Hunwick | Polak–Rielly | Hunwick–Zaitsev | Gardiner–Carrick | Hunwick–Carrick | Hunwick–Rielly | Hunwick–Gardiner | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foligno–Reinhart–Eichel | 3:240.06–0.03 | 1:400.02–0.01 | 1:110.06–0.00 | 1:250.08–0.00 | 3:490.08–0.00 | 0:360.11–0.00 | 2:190.00–0.16 | 1:200.11–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.00 | |||||
| O'Reilly–Kane–Nylander | 2:480.00–0.13 | 2:160.01–0.13 | 1:250.14–0.00 | 0:590.13–0.03 | 3:080.02–0.12 | 1:490.00–0.02 | ||||||||
| Reinhart–Eichel–Smith | 3:230.00–0.36 | 0:490.01–0.00 | 4:150.01–0.34 | |||||||||||
| Ennis–O'Reilly–Kane | 1:230.02–0.15 | 1:510.00–0.13 | 0:410.02–0.00 | 1:480.00–0.24 | 0:530.00–0.16 | |||||||||
| Gionta–Girgensons–Carrier | 0:550.00–0.00 | 1:490.00–0.01 | 0:590.00–0.00 | 1:170.00–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Foligno–Rodrigues–Nylander | 1:000.03–0.14 | 1:350.10–0.05 | 2:180.10–0.20 | |||||||||||
| Gionta–Ennis–Girgensons | 2:080.08–0.07 | 1:590.08–0.09 | ||||||||||||
| Carrier–Rodrigues–Smith | 0:360.00–0.00 | 1:070.13–0.05 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 0:300.02–0.00 | 1:040.11–0.00 | |||||||||
| Ennis–Rodrigues–Smith | 0:330.04–0.00 | 1:070.08–0.01 | ||||||||||||
| Gionta–Girgensons–Smith | 0:320.00–0.04 | 0:320.00–0.04 | ||||||||||||
| O'Reilly–Kane–Carrier | 0:390.04–0.09 | 0:480.04–0.09 | ||||||||||||
| Franson–Kulikov | 1:060.06–0.08 | 2:220.05–0.22 | 4:520.16–0.20 | 2:150.09–0.00 | 0:410.02–0.00 | 4:490.10–0.15 | 3:020.12–0.19 | 1:300.07–0.01 | 2:430.12–0.08 | 0:510.00–0.00 | ||||
| Bogosian–McCabe | 2:090.00–0.16 | 2:230.07–0.08 | 1:490.11–0.12 | 3:380.14–0.05 | 2:210.02–0.00 | 2:400.00–0.09 | 3:480.19–0.27 | 0:450.00–0.10 | 1:040.11–0.00 | 0:500.00–0.04 | ||||
| Gorges–Ristolainen | 3:420.00–0.38 | 2:340.00–0.01 | 1:080.00–0.00 | 0:300.01–0.00 | 3:440.09–0.34 | 1:570.01–0.00 | 1:300.00–0.02 | |||||||
| Kulikov–Ristolainen | 1:580.00–0.12 | 2:150.09–0.20 | 1:010.07–0.07 | 0:310.13–0.00 | 3:000.20–0.09 | 1:210.05–0.00 | 0:560.00–0.22 | 0:370.04–0.09 | 0:560.00–0.11 | |||||
| Gorges–Franson | 1:060.06–0.00 | 1:030.00–0.03 | 1:060.06–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.03 | 0:350.00–0.00 | |||||||||
| Gorges–Bogosian | 0:440.00–0.12 | 1:050.08–0.12 | 0:310.00–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Bogosian–Kulikov | 0:550.00–0.00 | 1:020.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||
| Gorges–Kulikov | 0:310.00–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
BUFTORFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Dmitry KulikovBUF | 32 | 27:21 | 0:51 | 1:40 | 8 | 4 |
 Jake GardinerTOR | 27 | 23:23 | 0:52 | 1:56 | 9 | 1 |
 Jack EichelBUF | 22 | 21:32 | 0:59 | 1:24 | 4 | 1 |
 Nikita ZaitsevTOR | 28 | 20:47 | 0:45 | 1:34 | 7 | 1 |
 Rasmus RistolainenBUF | 27 | 20:03 | 0:45 | 1:34 | 3 | 4 |
 Morgan RiellyTOR | 25 | 19:57 | 0:48 | 2:18 | 3 | 3 |
 Roman PolakTOR | 30 | 19:54 | 0:40 | 1:27 | 3 | 3 |
 Ryan O'ReillyBUF | 27 | 19:23 | 0:43 | 1:37 | 6 | 6 |
 Zach BogosianBUF | 29 | 19:01 | 0:39 | 1:17 | 3 | 5 |
 Evander KaneBUF | 22 | 18:51 | 0:51 | 1:23 | 5 | 2 |
 Leo KomarovTOR | 25 | 18:48 | 0:45 | 1:15 | 7 | 5 |
 Cody FransonBUF | 27 | 18:37 | 0:41 | 1:12 | 3 | 5 |
 Josh GorgesBUF | 30 | 18:07 | 0:36 | 1:06 | 4 | 6 |
 Tyler BozakTOR | 26 | 17:42 | 0:41 | 1:16 | 5 | 4 |
 Sam ReinhartBUF | 21 | 17:23 | 0:50 | 1:23 | 4 | 1 |
 Auston MatthewsTOR | 22 | 17:18 | 0:47 | 1:21 | 3 | 1 |
 Matt HunwickTOR | 27 | 17:08 | 0:38 | 1:22 | 1 | 1 |
 Nazem KadriTOR | 21 | 16:31 | 0:47 | 1:28 | 5 | 5 |
 Connor BrownTOR | 22 | 16:16 | 0:44 | 1:22 | 5 | 0 |
 William NylanderTOR | 20 | 15:50 | 0:48 | 1:03 | 3 | 0 |
 Marcus FolignoBUF | 18 | 15:39 | 0:52 | 1:27 | 3 | 5 |
 Zach HymanTOR | 20 | 15:10 | 0:46 | 1:13 | 1 | 1 |
 Jake McCabeBUF | 25 | 15:02 | 0:36 | 0:54 | 1 | 4 |
 James van RiemsdykTOR | 21 | 14:58 | 0:43 | 1:18 | 5 | 0 |
 Alex NylanderBUF | 16 | 14:28 | 0:54 | 1:40 | 4 | 4 |
 Mitch MarnerTOR | 21 | 14:28 | 0:41 | 1:08 | 5 | 0 |
 Connor CarrickTOR | 18 | 13:51 | 0:46 | 2:18 | 2 | 2 |
 Brian BoyleTOR | 20 | 13:15 | 0:40 | 1:17 | 3 | 2 |
 Evan RodriguesBUF | 18 | 13:10 | 0:44 | 1:11 | 2 | 4 |
 C.J. SmithBUF | 15 | 13:07 | 0:52 | 1:32 | 1 | 0 |
 Brian GiontaBUF | 19 | 12:34 | 0:40 | 1:22 | 2 | 3 |
 Kasperi KapanenTOR | 19 | 11:57 | 0:38 | 1:18 | 2 | 1 |
 Tyler EnnisBUF | 15 | 11:40 | 0:47 | 1:47 | 3 | 1 |
 Matt MartinTOR | 17 | 10:47 | 0:38 | 0:55 | 2 | 1 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsBUF | 18 | 10:38 | 0:35 | 1:18 | 1 | 4 |
 William CarrierBUF | 15 | 8:46 | 0:35 | 0:51 | 2 | 2 |