Sun, Apr 9, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 17 | 05 | 116 | 228 |
| TBL | 013 | 214 | 210 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:56BUFWilliam CarrierAssists: Alex Nylander, Zach Bogosian · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 5:59TBLBrayden PointAssists: Victor Hedman, Jake Dotchin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 12:20TBLBraydon CoburnSHAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 11:17BUFEvander KaneAssists: Brian Gionta, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 18:36TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 19:59TBLVictor HedmanENAssists: Anton Stralman, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.48 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 7:12BUFJack Eichel: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:26TBLJT Brown: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:45BUFZemgus Girgensons: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:58BUFWilliam Carrier: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – O'Reilly – Kane11:11
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Carrier – Rodrigues – Nylander7:40
xG 0.15–0.22 (40%)attempts 8–7goals 1–2
- Ennis – Reinhart – Eichel13:40
xG 0.33–0.56 (37%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Moulson – Deslauriers – Girgensons10:57
xG 0.17–0.51 (25%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gorges – Franson13:31
xG 0.44–0.41 (52%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Ristolainen17:33
xG 0.35–0.51 (41%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- Bogosian – McCabe18:06
xG 0.44–0.77 (36%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Erne – Drouin12:13
xG 0.69–0.27 (72%)attempts 17–9goals 0–2
- Killorn – Conacher – Gourde10:51
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point13:22
xG 0.39–0.31 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Dumont – McKegg – Brown9:46
xG 0.04–0.29 (13%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Witkowski13:19
xG 0.55–0.35 (61%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Hedman – Dotchin15:03
xG 0.75–0.60 (56%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Coburn – Sustr11:54
xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).