Sat, Oct 21, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 08 | 011 | 312 | 331 |
| OTT | 113 | 211 | 311 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:01OTTNate ThompsonAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Logan Brown · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 14:20OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Erik Karlsson, Chris Wideman · Deflected, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 19:48OTTDerick BrassardAssists: Bobby Ryan, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 6:00TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Ron Hainsey, Connor Brown · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 8:34TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander, Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 8:41OTTMark StoneGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.36 xG2–4
- P3 12:52TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Jake Gardiner, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 16:30OTTDerick BrassardAssists: Mark Stone, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 18:21OTTMark StoneENAssists: Derick Brassard, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.59 xG3–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:33TORConnor Carrick: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:20TORMitch Marner: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P3 11:56OTTAlexandre Burrows: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:40OTTJohnny Oduya: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nylander won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews13:39
xG 0.50–0.23 (68%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Marner4:43
xG 0.02–0.02 (49%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Moore – Martin – Marner5:49
xG 0.12–0.22 (36%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown11:49
xG 0.32–0.50 (39%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly2:37
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Carrick – Borgman13:05
xG 0.15–0.30 (33%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Rielly16:27
xG 0.52–1.02 (34%)attempts 24–17goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – Thompson – Brown3:40
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau6:56
xG 0.26–0.04 (85%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Ryan – Brassard – Stone7:58
xG 0.26–0.12 (68%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Burrows – Turris – Dzingel4:28
xG 0.12–0.02 (84%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Claesson5:46
xG 0.70–0.05 (93%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Oduya – Karlsson15:17
xG 1.00–0.38 (73%)attempts 22–16goals 3–0
- Karlsson – Wideman2:57
xG 0.20–0.02 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).